After a record-breaking Week 3, Week 4 is upon us. David Montgomery and the Lions kicked it off with a big win at Lambeau on Thursday, but there is much more action left in store! Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with schematic information and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend!
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Ravens at Browns
Sunday | 1:00 ET
The Browns defense has arguably been the most impressive unit the the NFL thus far. They’ve allowed only 491 yards to total offense through three games, the next closest team is the Bills at 759 yards. Cleveland is on a different level. In both Week 1 and Week 3, they allowed only three points. They will be tasked with stopping the Ravens offense on Sunday. Baltimore has looked good this season, although they will head into Cleveland on the heels of a tough loss to the Colts. Justin Tucker fell short a potentially game-winning field goal, and the Ravens ultimately fell short in overtime. They’ll look to right the ship in the Dawg Pound.
It will be a great challenge for Baltimore to do much of anything on offense. Last week, QB Lamar Jackson ran for 101 yards and passed for 202 yards, almost surpassing what the Browns have given up through three games combined. The Browns haven’t had to deal with a running quarterback yet. If Jackson can have another big day on the ground, Cleveland’s defense might struggle the most that it has this year. For the Ravens, this is what needs to happen. The Browns secondary, headed by CB Denzel Ward, is fantastic. Plus, Myles Garrett and Za’darius Smith will be screaming off of the edges. If WR Zay Flowers and TE Mark Andrews don’t get open quickly, Lamar will likely resort to scrambling on many occasions. To use this to his advantage, I expect OC Greg Roman to get Lamar out of the pocket a lot and let him operate outside of it, away from Garrett and co.
The Cleveland offense has had much of a more questionable start than the defense. However, they don’t need to be world-beaters with such an impressive unit accompanying them. Nick Chubb’s injury certainly changes what the Browns want to do on offense. More pressure now falls onto QB Deshaun Watson’s shoulders.
On defense, the Ravens have some real talent. Roquan Smith is one of the best linebackers in the leage, and Kyle Hamilton is extremely dynamic, racking up three sacks from the safety position in Week 3. They play a little bit of everything, so they will likely tailor their scheme to the Browns. Cleveland only had 78 rushing yards in their first week without Chubb, I would expect the Ravens to employ a lot of 2-high-safety shells. No matter what, they will play sound defense and probably give Watson troubles.
This is going to be a classic, hard-nosed, AFC North grind of a game. With the way that the defense has been playing, it’s tough to pick against the Browns in the Dawg Pound. Expect a low-scoring defensive battle.
Score Prediction: Browns 21 Ravens 17
Seahawks at Giants
Monday | 8:15 ET
After a surprising Week 1 loss to the Rams, the Seahawks have scored exactly 37 points in both games since, and are trending in the right direction. This matchup should produce a lot of scoring, as the Giants and Seahawks have given up the 3rd and 4th most points in the NFL this season. Although, the Giants have also only scored 43 points on the year, which is good for 31st in the league (their numbers may be skewed due to their 40-0 loss in Week 1).
New York’s season hasn’t started the way that their fans had hoped, as they are one insane comeback short of sitting at 0-3. In their defense, they have played two top-five teams (with top-five defenses) in the Cowboys and 49ers. QB Daniel Jones should have a much easier time moving down the field against the Seattle defense. This week’s game is pivotal for the Giants. If they win, they’re right back in the thick of things. If they lose, focus may shift to the 2024 season already.
Feel comfortable starting any and all of the Seahawks players you may have on your fantasy roster. When Seattle has the ball, they should be able to march down the field with relative ease. The Giants rank 30th in overall defensive PFF grade through three weeks. They haven’t been able to stop anyone yet, even the Joshua Dobbs-led Cardinals. Expect the Seahawks to pound outside zone with RB Kenneth Walker, per usual. New York has allowed at least one touchdown by a running back each week this season, so expect Walker- who is coming off of back to back two-touchdown performances- to find the endzone. Giants DC Wink Martindale is known for his man heavy scheme, which means that DK Metcalf will probably be the receiver who excels on Monday. I truly don’t see how the Giants defense would be able to limit Seattle; the Seahawks simply have better players.
The real intrigue comes from the other side of the ball. Monday night will present another chance for the Giants offense to prove that they have improved upon last season, and that Weeks 1 and 3 were simply tough matchups. There is no reason that New York shouldn’t be able to put up some points against a defense that gave up 27 to Andy Dalton just last week! Star RB Saquon Barkley’s status is still unknown, but stopping the run has been Seattle’s strength on defense this year anyways. However, the unit ranks 30th in PFF coverage grade. Pro Bowl CB Riq Woolen’s return will certainly provide a boost to the secondary, but head coach Brian Daboll and the Giants should still test it out. They don’t have a true WR1, but there are several solid receivers on the roster who should be able to produce this week. If Barkley doesn’t go, I expect the Giants to mainly rely on Daniel Jones getting the ball to these receivers, as well as Darren Waller.
Even though the Giants will be in desperation mode (especially with Weeks 5 and 6 presenting trips to Miami and Buffalo), I think that the Seahawks offense will prove too overwhelming. New York has fallen behind early each week so far this season, so I expect the same to happen on Monday night. As long as the Seahawks don’t collapse in the manner of the Cardinals, they should come out of MetLife with three wins under their belt.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 33 Giants 24
Honorable Mentions
Falcons at Jaguars
Sunday | 9:30 ET
The NFL’s first International Series game of the season couples as a Calvin Ridley revenge game. This matchup is tough to get a read on, as the Jaguars offense has severely underperformed so far in 2023. The unit seems just a couple of plays away from blowing the doors open each week, but they simply haven’t been getting it done. Maybe everything will start clicking in their home away from home at Wembley Stadium.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24 Falcons 20
Steelers at Texans
Sunday | 1:00 ET
Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud has looked fantastic thus far. He’s already racked up 906 passing yards and four touchdowns (with 0 interceptions). I cannot wait to see what he can do against the impressive Pittsburgh defense. Unfortunately for him, I expect the Steelers pass rush to shred the injury-ridden Houston offensive line, and cause Stroud some real issues.
On the other side of the ball, maybe a matchup against a below-average defense can allow Kenny Pickett and the Steeler offense to get something going. They currently rank dead last in overall PFF offensive grade. Stellar defensive play has allowed for the team to scrape by, even with this type of offensive production. I expect this pattern to continue on Sunday.
Score Prediction: Steelers 24 Texans 20
Game of the Week
Dolphins at Bills
Sunday | 1:00 ET
It’s a shame that this game isn’t being played in the later time slot. America deserves to watch this. The Dolphins are 3-0, and coming off of a historic offensive performance against the Denver Broncos. I wrote an article about their defense before the season, but the offense is first in overall offensive PFF grade by a wide margin through the first three weeks of the season (93.0, the next closest is the Lions at 78.0). They accumulated 70 points and 726 total yards in Week 3. They are must-watch television, especially against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills will have the tough task of attempting to slow down the buzzsaw that is the Miami offense on Sunday.
Miami’s offense versus the Buffalo defense is the most exciting unit matchup of the week. Both are coming in hot, as the Bills forced five turnovers and held the Commanders to only three points last week. Last year, the Bills played a high amount of man coverage on early downs. This would not be a good recipe for success against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, two of the fastest players in the NFL. Lately, teams have been playing mainly zone against the Dolphins and giving Hill a massive cushion to avoid getting beat deep. However, letting the ball find Tyreek so easily is not ideal, and he has been able to exploit this strategy. Simply put, Tyreek is nearly unguardable. No one has figured out how to stop him in Mike McDaniel’s offense yet.
In Week 3, Miami’s running game was also unstoppable. As a former run-game specialist under Kyle Shanahan years ago, the rushing game is McDaniel’s expertise. Having such a dynamic run and pass game is what makes the Dolphins offense so difficult to gameplan against. I expect the Bills to implement a bend-but-don’t-break approach this week, giving Dolphins DC Vic Fangio a taste of his own medicine.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills offense has strung together two fantastic games in a row (37 and 38 points, respectively). They are second in points scored in the entire NFL (91), behind only the Dolphins (130). They’ll probably look to pound the rock early, as Miami’s run defense is probably the one chink in their armor. However, Buffalo’s passing game is obviously its strength, so there will be a healthy amount of deep balls to Stefon Diggs and co.
Ultimately, I think that the Dolphins are too hot to lose right now, even on the road in Buffalo. The offense looks unstoppable, and will even be aided by the return of Jaylen Waddle this week. Although, the score should be a little closer than last week.