NFL Week 6 Preview | Schematics and Storylines

Another week, another new slate. Here is a compilation of my thoughts regarding the week’s most interesting games, along with schematic information and what to watch for this weekend! Each matchup has a score prediction with reasoning. Skip to the end to learn about the most intriguing game this weekend!

Jump to any game!

Saints at Texans

Cowboys at Chargers

49ers at Browns

Lions at Buccaneers

Game of the Week

Most Intriguing Matchups

Saints at Texans

Sunday | 1:00 ET

This is an intriguing matchup. Rookie QB CJ Stroud has looked great in his first five NFL starts. The Texans offense has been efficient and Stroud has been a huge part of this. He will face a difficult task in attempting to keep it up against the New Orleans Saints’ defense. The Texans rank 9th in PFF offensive grade, but the Saints rank 3rd in PFF defensive grade. Will Stroud be able to operate under more difficult conditions than he faced in Weeks 1-5?

The most interesting matchup is definitely the Houston offense versus the New Orleans defense. Diving into it deeper, Stroud has been amazing. He looks like he’s been doing this for years. He already has two 300 yard games, and 1461 passing yards in total. He’s thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. These are not typical rookie numbers. Stroud has been spreading the ball all around his offense, from WR Nico Collins and veteran Robert Woods to rookie WR Tank Dell and TE Dalton Schultz. It’s been fun watching this offense play.

Meanwhile, the Saints have been dominant on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve allowed the 3rd least amount of yards out of teams that haven’t had their bye week yet, and 3rd least passing yards under the same parameters. The strength is in the secondary. Veteran cornerback Isaac Yiadom has been a revalation so far, ranking 1st out of 109 eligible CBs in PFF grade. Safety Tyrann Mathieu is also back making plays with New Orleans, taking a Mac Jones interception to the house last week. Demario Davis round out the middle of the field and is the leader of this defense.

The way for the Texans to score against this unit is through the ground. This is an issue for them and their insanely beaten-up offensive line. RB Damien Pierce hasn’t had anywhere to go. Houston will probably resort to the passing game simply due to their lack of efficiency on the ground. The already-impressive Saints secondary will be able to hone in even more on the passing game, and probably cause CJ Stroud many problems.

The other side of the ball provides a matchup between two bottom half of the league units. The Saints have leaned into RB Alvin Kamara each of the last two weeks, and they will certainly do it in Week 5 against the 31st ranked PFF run defense. Houston’s defense has also given up the least passing touchdowns in the NFL this year (three). Expect the Saints to grab the lead and pound the rock.

I expect the Saints to come out on top. The weakness of the Texans’ run game coupled with the strength of the Saints’ secondary is a horrible combination for Houston. Forced to air it out, CJ Stroud will throw his first NFL interception (the Saints are tied for 2nd in NFL with seven). The New Orleans offense will be able to do just enough, and the Saints will head home happy.

Score Prediction: Saints 20 Texans 13

Cowboys at Chargers

Monday | 8:15 ET

This should be an entertaining game to watch. The Chargers tend to be exciting, as they have a multitude of offensive weapons, but a subpar defense that gives up a lot of points. LA is coming off of their bye week, so they’ve had plenty of time to try and figure out how to move the ball against Dallas’s intimidating defense. The unit ranks 2nd in PFF pass rush grade and 3rd in PFF coverage grade through five weeks. They’ll be looking to write the ship after an embarrassing and disappointing loss on Sunday Night Football to the 49ers.

Seeing what OC Kellen Moore and the Chargers have been able to scheme up with the extra time is going to be exciting. The Cowboys’ defense was playing very well in Weeks 1-4 before giving up 42 to San Fransisco. The 49er offense might be on its own level at the top of the NFL, so I’m not worried about the Dallas defense. LA is explosive and will probably get star running back Austin Ekeler back from injury, but I still expect them to struggle. Tackle Rashawn Slater, who has been good this season, will have a difficult task in limiting Dallas edge rusher Micah Parsons. The first step in scoring against the Cowboys is containing the rush.

If they are able to do that, things don’t get much easier. The Cowboys have given up the 2nd-least passing yards this season, only behind the Browns who have played one less game. This is not good news for the Chargers, who rely on their passing game to get yards. The way to attack the Cowboys is on the ground. Moore will have to decide whether to pound the run game even though it is not a strength of his unit, or play into Dallas’ strength by letting Justin Herbert air it out. I expect Ekeler to get a few carries early, but the Chargers to be forced into the pass game after getting down in the game.

Switching sides, Tony Pollard just might have a field day. The Cowboys have an insane guard duo in Tyler Smith and Zach Martin (1st and 5th in PFF grade), and the Chargers rank 28th in PFF run defense grade. Pollard doesn’t need much to break off a big run, and he’ll have more than a few chances on Monday Night. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa can rush the passer all they want, but they can’t make as much on an impact if Dallas is pounding the rock.

LA’s secondary is not good, so the Cowboys will also sprinkle in some shots downfield to get Dak’s confidence up. This is necessary after his 1 TD-3 interception performance in Week 3.

The Cowboys will win this one. They will be playing with pent-up anger from last week, and will overpower the Chargers. Herbert and LA will score a bit after having an extra week to plan, but Dallas’ defense will hold strong over the course of the game. Meanwhile, Tony Pollard and the Dallas offensive line will be bullying players on the other side of the ball.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 31 Chargers 23

Honorable Mentions

49ers at Browns

Sunday | 1:00 ET

The 49ers are unstoppable and must-watch television every Sunday. They’ll run into arguably the most impressive defense so far in this young season in Cleveland . Shanahan and the Niners probably aren’t too worried though, as they dismantled Dallas’ 4th ranked PFF defense last week. This matchup presents a buzz saw meeting a buzz saw; it will be fascinating to see which unit loses its footing.

It’s impossible to pick against the 49ers right now. QB Brock Purdy quite literally has never lost an NFL game in which he didn’t destroy his elbow. He is the perfect quarterback for Shanahan’s offense, and is surrounded by the best weapons in the league. San Fransisco will find a way to score. Plus, with Deshaun Watson’s status unknown, the Browns could have a very difficult time scoring on Sunday.

Score Prediction: 49ers 24 Browns 7

Lions at Buccaneers

Sunday | 4:25 ET

The Lions have been great this year, but this game will be tough. Goff typically struggles away from Ford Field, especially outdoors. Tampa Bay’ defense is solid and they could keep the Bucs in this one for a while.

If Detroit wins with authority, it shouldn’t be overlooked. I think it would cement them as a top-tier power in the NFC. I expect this to be a tight game, but Detroit ultimately comes out victorious.

Score Prediction: Lions 23 Buccaneers 17

Game of the Week

Seahawks at Bengals

Sunday | 1:00 ET

Coming off of a bye week, the Seattle comes into this matchup on a three game winning streak. The Seahawk offense has been cooking this year. It ranks 7th in overall offensive PFF grade, and it has produced 37 points in half of its games thus far. Cincinnati’s offense has been a different story. Joe Burrow’s preseason calf injury has clearly been affecting him through the first five weeks of the season, and the Bengals have been underperforming as a result. However, Burrow turned in his best performance- by far- last week in the offense’s first explosion game. How will the Bengals’ offense look on Sunday against a better Seahawks defense?

Joe Burrow looked much more like himself in Week 4 against the Cardinals, throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns. More notably, he had a 10 yard run. His calf is clearly feeling better and is allowing him to play more comfortably. Still, the Cardinals defense has not been good in 2023. Seattle, on the other hand, is ranked 11th in defensive PFF grade (although they have given up a decent number of points).

Last time Seattle played, rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon was flying around the field, recording two sacks and a 99 yard pick six out of the nickel position. It will be interesting to see whether or not Pete Carrol moves him back into the boundary this week, as he was only there due to injury last time out. WR Tyler Boyd has easily seen the most snaps out of the slot on the team, but he is the team’s third best receiver. Carrol and the Seahawks might rather have Witherspoon lined up with Chase or Higgins on the outside.

The Bengals will try to repeat last week, as Ja’marr Chase put up an insane 15 catch, 192 yard, 3 touchdown performance. The Panthers, Lions, and Rams were all able to put up 27+ points against the Seahawks this season, and each of them did it through the air. Each of these quarterbacks threw for at least 300 yards, two of them throwing for three touchdowns as well. We will likely see a lot more Ja’marr Chase as Joe Burrow should throw a lot of passes. I think that the Cincinnati offense will continue its hot streak and go shot for shot with the Seahawks.

QB Geno Smith and Seattle’s offense will face off against a talented Bengals defensive unit. It is tied for 5th in interceptions, and tied for 8th in sacks. However, it has also given up the 11th most points in the league. Seattle’s offense has been efficient this season, especially on the ground. RB Kenneth Walker has scored five touchdowns in his last three games. The Bengals have been susceptible to the run this year, so I expect Walker to get a big workload. Geno has only thrown one interception this year, so grabbing a pick or two would be huge for the Cincinnati defense.

This is a really tough game to forecast. I’m going to buy into the idea that the Bengals are back and I see them putting up another impressive offensive performance. I also think that the Seahawks are a strong team, and will also be able to put up points. This could be a shootout. If both offenses are on, I have the Bengals with a slight edge.

Score Prediction: Bengals 31 Seahawks 27