Sunday | 4:30 ET
This just feels like a classic NFC playoff matchup. The Green Bay Packers, led by rookie QB phenom Jordan Love and his ensemble of young, solid receivers the Packers somehow squeaked into the playoffs and will head to Dallas to take on America’s Team in Super Wildcard Weekend. The Cowboys finished the season at 12-5. The narrative that they can’t beat good teams generally does ring true, but only on the road. While Dallas lost away games to the Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, and 49ers this season, they also took care of business the two times that they hosted elite team (Lions, Eagles). We’ll see if that rings true on Sunday.
The Cowboys scored the most points in the NFL this year (509). QB Dak Prescott had a NFL-caliber season, finishing first in touchdown passes and third in passing yards. He enabled WR CeeDee Lamb to realize his full potential. Lamb put up 1749 receiving yards (second in NFL) and 12 touchdowns (second in NFL) on 135 catches (first in NFL). He will be Green Bay’s first order of business on defense. CeeDee primarily works out of the slot. Green Bay’s nickel cornerback Keisean Nixon has a below-average PFF coverage grade, which tilts things in Lamb’s favor. They only way that the Packers could hope to slow CeeDee down is to bracket him, which will only create more opportunities for WR Brandin Cooks and TE Jake Ferguson, both of which have established themselves as viable pass catchers in this offense. The Packers finished about average in most pass defense stats in 2023 (passing touchdowns, net yards per pass attempt, passing yards) but average doesn’t cut it against the Cowboys passing attack this year.
On the ground, the Cowboys have surprisingly been a bit below average this year. While the Packers allowed the fifth-most rushing yards this season, they held a very efficient rushing team in the Bears to only 75 yards on 25 carries last week (only 3.0 yards per carry). I don’t think Tony Pollard will have a big day in the running game.
Flipping sides, the Packers offense has really come on in the second half of the season. After a slow start, Jordan Love managed to put up 32 passing touchdowns (second in NFL) and over 4,000 passing yards. He had a fantastic season, especially considering his receiving core. WR Christian Watson was expected to take a big step this year, but missed much of the season due to injury. 2023 second-round-pick Jayden Reed led the team in receiving yards, followed by second-year WR Romeo Doubs, and then 2023 fifth-round-pick Dontayvion Wicks. The fact that the offense is running so smoothly reflects very well on both heach coach Matt LeFleur and Jordan Love. Though Dallas is solid in coverage this year, I still have confidence in Green Bay’s passing attack. Dallas ranks seventh in PFF coverage grade, allows the eighth-least net yards per pass attempt, and the fifth-least passing yards per game. CB Daron Bland had a phenomenal season, and veteran Stefon Gilmore held it down on the other side of the field. However, it’s not like Green Bay has one or even two main pass catchers. They have a group of several players who have chemistry with Love and have shown ability to get open.
In the running game, Aaron Jones should have a good chance at an efficient day. The Cowboys are average against the run, while the Packers rank 12th in yards per carry. Jones has rushed for 110+ yards in each of his past three games, and will look to keep up this streak running. If the Packers can manage to dominate the running game on both sides of the ball, they will give themselves a solid chance of winning this game.
In all, I expect a high scoring battle this Sunday in Dallas. Green Bay has run the ball very well recently, and the passing game is going so well that a stingy Cowboys secondary will only slow it down to a certain extent. However, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb could simply tear apart Green Bay’s defense. Dallas plays like a different team at home, and it’s tough to pick against them in a situation like this.