Keys to the Game
Panthers
- Don’t Let Swift Run Loose
- Dominate the Trenches
If Carolina plans on leaving Soldier Field with a win, defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero better have a solid plan for Bears running back D’Andre Swift. After 3 poor outings to start the season, Swift exploded for over 160 total yards last week, including 93 on the ground. Chicago’s offense finally got rolling in the second half last week against the Rams, and it is no coincidence that Swift began gaining good rushing yardage around this same time. That game illustrated how much better the Bears offense is with any semblance of a running game to supplement rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. The Panthers need to keep Chicago one-dimensional, like they were in weeks 1-3.
The success of the opposing run game has been a great indicator for Carolina over the last couple of weeks. Last week, they surrendered 141 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground to the Bengals in a losing effort, while they held the Raiders to only 55 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown in their lone victory of 2024 in the week prior. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they haven’t been strong against the run this season which helps explain the 1-3 record. In fact, they’ve allowed the 4th-most rushing yards this year.
Another major point of emphasis for Carolina this week is to win the battle in the trenches, specifically on offense. Second-year quarterback Bryce Young’s replacement, Andy Dalton, is not a mobile quarterback. If given protection, however, he can put up big numbers. Chicago has a steller secondary, but even the most talented cornerbacks and safeties can’t defend forever. If the Panthers shut down the Bears’ pass rush, they will give Dalton a good chance to find open receivers downfield. Winning this aspect of the game is vital for Carolina this week.
Bears
- Don’t Let Dalton Win with the Deep Pass
- Set Caleb Loose
From Chicago’s point of view, the Red Rifle can’t kill you with the deep pass. In his first game as Carolina’s starting QB, Dalton threw for 319 yards, 3 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Wide receivers Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, and Adam Thielen each caught passes of 30+ yards in the winning effort. The veteran QB can still sling it, so the Bears need to limit him. Last week, in a loss, Dalton only accumulated 220 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and threw one interception. That is the statline that the Bears need to force this Sunday.
Jaylon Johnson and company should be up to the task, as Chicago’s defense has only allowed 3 passing TDs all year (3rd in NFL), have racked up 5 interceptions already (4th in NFL) and have surrendered the 8th-least passing yards.
One other thing I’d like to see out of Chicago, though probably not essential to get the win, is to set Caleb Williams loose. The Panthers defense has been awful this year, especially at defending the pass. Carolina has given up the most points in the league through 4 weeks, allowed the 6th-most net yards per pass attempt on defense, and have surrendered the 2nd-most passing TDs (9, over 2 per game) to opposing offenses. Williams had a good Week 3 without gaudy stats, I think it’s possible that he has a good Week 4 with the gaudy stats.
What’s the Move?
Bears -4 (ESPNBet)
I’ll take the Bears against the spread this week in a home matchup against the Panthers. Believe it or not, Chicago has won 7 straight home games.
They head into this one as 4 point favorites against a Panthers team with arguably the worst defense in the NFL up to this point. The Panthers have allowed the most points through the first 4 weeks. Opponents score on 51.1% of their offensive possessions, and the secondary has allowed at least 2 passing TDs in every game this season.
Not only do the Bears cover, but I see Caleb Williams coming out of Week 5 with the first multi-touchdown game of his NFL career.