Sunday | 8:00 ET
The NFL script writers really hit the nail on the head on this one. The Matthew Stafford-led LA Rams will head to Detroit to take on the Jared Goff-led Lions to cap off Sunday night. The contest will mark Detroit’s first home playoff game since 1994. Ford Field is going to be an absolute madhouse, and I honestly expect the crowd to make a bit of a difference in the game. LA comes in on a four-game winning streak, although three of these wins were one-score victories over non-playoff teams (Saints, Commanders, Giants) and the other was a game of backups against the 49ers in Week 18. Nonetheless, they’ve been getting it done, thanks to the impressive play of QB Matt Stafford, RB Kyren Williams, and WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Lions’ play deteriorated towards the end of the season, and the team most likely will be without star rookie TE Sam LaPorta this week. Still, Detroit played a tight game at Dallas a few weeks ago, and will be amped up for this massive playoff game.
This game is going be a ‘defense-optional’ shootout. The offenses are fifth and eighth, respectively in points for, while the defenses are 23th and 19th in points allowed. Starting with Detroit, its offense has been one of the most efficient in the NFL. The Lions were third in net yards per pass attempt and fifth in yards per carry this season. It’s always very dangerous when a team can beat you on the ground (with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs) or through the air (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta). Detroit is tied for first in rushing touchdowns (27), and fifth in passing touchdowns (30). Importantly, Sam LaPorta- who accounted for ten of these passing touchdowns– will most likely not play. We’ve yet to see what this offense looks like without him, but he is certainly a key cog.
In terms of efficiency, the Rams defense is average both against the run and the pass. It’s 30th in takeaways and 24th in sacks, so Detroit won’t have to worry on those fronts. One thing that LA’s defense has done great job of is limiting rushing touchdowns. It’s given up only 12 rushing TDs compared to 23 passing TDs. Without LaPorta, the Lions will lose their go-to guy in the endzone. If LA can turn usual-touchdowns drives into field goals, that could be a recipe for success.
Flipping sides, the Rams offense ranks seventh in net yards per pass attempt and ninth in yards per carry. It gets the majority of its touchdowns through the air. Rookie WR Puka Nacua grabbed six of them this year, in addition to breaking both the single-season reception and receiving yard rookie records. Second-year RB Kyren Williams also had a phenomenal year. Despite missing five games with injury, he racked up 1,144 rushing yards (third in NFL) and 15 total touchdowns.
Everything gets tied together by veteran QB Matt Stafford and head coach Sean McVay. McVay has done a fantastic job with this young team and has taylored the offense to Stafford’s strengths. Stafford still is going strong and makes insane throws every week. He’ll shine this week against a Detroit defense that gave up the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt this year and the seventh-most passing touchdowns. The Lions have a major issue at cornerback and I have on doubt that McVay will figure out how to exploit this with Kupp and Nacua.
The struggles will come in the running game. Detroit is very good in run defense, having allowed the third-least yards per carry this year. The Rams are a different team with Kyren Willams healthy. When healthy, the Rams were 8-4 this season; they were 2-3 without him. He went over 100 rushing yards in half of his games (6/12). The balance he creates in LA’s offense is vital. In 7/9 Rams wins (not counting Week 18 in which starters rested), Kyren Williams rushed for 88+ yards. Meanwhile, Detroit never allowed 88 rushing yards to a running back this season. The only player to hit that mark was Bears QB Justin Fields (104) in Week 11. Vikings RB Ty Chandler came the closest just last week with 69 rushing yards. In games where Kyren Williams was active and rushed for less than 69 yards, the Rams were 1-3. Simply put: the Rams rely upon good yardage on the ground from Kyren Williams. The Detroit Lions simply do not give up big (or even solid) days on the ground. Stafford will probably have to do all the work in Sunday.
In all, this should be a very entertaining football game. Detroit’s offense will be dampered by LaPorta’s injury, but the phenomenal offensive line combined with the running back and Amon-Ra will be able to do some damage against the Rams. LA will be able to create some fireworks through the air, but I don’t expect Kyren Williams to do much on the ground. Since this seems to be a key ingredient in LA’s winning recipe, I’ll take Detroit to come away with its first playoff win since the 1991 season.