Sunday | 8:20 ET
Two potential playoff teams will face off on Sunday Night Football this week in the Ravens and Jaguars. Jacksonville is on a two game losing streak and is in danger of losing its hold on the NFC South. Meanwhile, the Ravens are winners of three straight and have sole possession of the top seed in the AFC.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is having one of the most impressive seasons in the NFL this year, and is coming off of a 316 passing yard, three touchdown, 70 rushing yard performance. He has led Baltimore to great efficiency both on the ground and through the air this season. The Ravens are sixth in net yards per pass attempt and second in yards per carry this year. Despite their efficiency through the air, the Ravens have the fourth-least pass attempts this season due to almost always playing with the lead. They are first in rushing yards and second in rushing attempts. Running the ball so much with RB Gus Edwards has allowed Jackson to avoid turnovers; the Ravens have thrown the second-least interceptions this season (6). Edwards is not a special talent, but he is able to be efficient due to a good offensive line and the added threat of Lamar’s rushing ability. Defenses also have to respect the success that Jackson had had through the air this season, which spreads the defense even thinner.
The Jaguars will have a tough time slowing down the impressive Baltimore offensive attack. They’ve allowed 30+ points in two straight games, to third-string QB Joe Flacco with the Browns and the Bengals with backup QB Jake Browning under center. Lamar Jackson is playing like a top-three quarterback right now, so I can’t imagine what he’ll do on Sunday. Jacksonville allows the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt. Impressively, the defense has allowed the fourth-least rushing yards. They are tough against the run, so it will be interesting to see what Baltimore tries to do on Sunday, considering its prowess in the running game. The bad news for the Jaguars is that the Ravens offense can score in any way it wants to. Though the strength is the rushing attack, Jackson is perfectly capable of putting up big passing numbers against stout run defenses (357 passing yards vs. Lions in Week 7, 316 vs. Rams in Week 14).
Flipping sides, its tough to project what we’ll see out of the Jaguars offense. QB Trevor Lawrence, to my surprise, felt good enough to suit up last week against a very good Browns defense. He threw three TDs and three INTs on a whopping 50 passing attempts. Possibly not fully healthy, he was forced to air it out against arguably the best secondary in the league because of Jacksonville’s inability to run the ball. This led to three interceptions. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, nothing gets easier this week against the Ravens.
The reason the Browns have “arguably” the best secondary in the NFL is because the Ravens exist. Baltimore allows the least net yards per pass attempt and has given up the least passing touchdowns in the NFL. Its run defense numbers are average to below average, but it won’t matter. The Jaguars can’t run the ball; they average the third-least yards per carry in the NFL. Just like last week against Cleveland, the Jaguars will be forced to rely on Trevor Lawrence’s arm against a phenomenal secondary. He may hit on a couple of home run balls, but this is not a sustainable gameplan against the defense that has given up the second-least total points in the NFL this year.
In all, the Jaguars’ inability to run the ball will lead to trouble on the offensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, the Ravens can do anything on offense and will eat the floundering Jaguars defense alive.