Saturday | 8:15 ET
This Week 18 matchup is as good as they come. Two 9-7 division rivals, winner takes the AFC South. The loser not only surrenders the division, but their ticket to the playoffs. The stakes do not get any higher than this. The Texans have a good deal of injuries, as basically their entire defensive line along with wide receivers Noah Brown and Robert Woods were DNP’s on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Though this is certainly concerning, I expect most the WRs and at least two of the lineman to gut it out; no player wants to miss this type of game. Texans quarterback CJ Stroud returned from injury last week in a commanding 26-3 victory over the Titans, while the Colts squeaked out a win over the Raiders in Week 17.
The Texans surprised people this season with their fun, young, new offense. Rookies CJ Stroud and Tank Dell exhibited a fantastic connection. Now with Dell out for the season due to injury and Stroud just recovered from one, things have gotten a little less rosey in Houston. Still, I expect everyone except Dell to be a go for Week 18, and this offense can still make some noise. Over the entire season, it ranks 13th in yards per play, 12th in net yards per pass attempt, and seventh in passing yards. The Texans are not efficient on the ground though, ranking 26th in yards per carry and 25th in rushing touchdowns. RB Devin Singletary does seem to have a blow-up game every few weeks, but it’s not something that you can count on. The Colts defense that will be tasked with stopping CJ Stroud and the Texans has allowed the sixth-most points in 2023. It is average against the pass, though it has allowed the tenth-least passing touchdowns. Efficiency-wise, it is also average against the run. However, opponents tend to run against Indianapolis a lot. This has led to the Colts giving up the sixth-most rushing yards this season and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns. This is interesting, because the Texans get most of their touchdowns through the air and struggle to punch it in on the ground. The Colts defense isn’t very good, but its few strengths seem to line up well against the Texans’ strengths on offense.
Another aspect of this matchup is the pass rush. The Colts are fifth in sacks, while the Texans offense has the the ninth-worst sack percentage. With offense tackle Laremy Tunsil’s health in question for this game, the Colts might be able to throw a wrench in Houston’s game plan by getting to the quarterback. Ultimately, I do expect the Colts defense to give the Texans some real trouble. Unless Singletary has one of his blow-up games, the Texans won’t score many points.
Switching sides, the Colts offense has managed to score the tenth-most points this season despite losing QB Anthony Richardson early in the year. The way that this team has persevered and given itself the opportunity to make the playoffs in Week 18 is a testament to the job that Shane Steichen has done in his first year as head coach in Indianapolis. The Colts were also without star RB Jonathan Taylor for much of the year. Indy ranks 17th in yards per carry and 18th in net yards per pass attempt. The Texans defense is very good against the run but very bad against the pass, having given up the third-least yards per carry but the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt. Very oddly enough, it allows touchdowns in the exact opposite manner. Though a stifling run defense, Houston’s given up the sixth-most rushing touchdowns. And, despite its great efficiency numbers against the pass, it has allowed the least passing touchdowns in the NFL this season.
Houston is tenth in sacks and fifth in pressure percentage, but its entire defensive line is on the injury report. It’s safe to expect a dip in its efficiency, even if most of them end up suiting up (which I expect they will). It’s really tough to forecast which unit will come out on top of this matchup, so I expect a bit of a standstill. The Colts will certainly have some nice drives though, and once they get to the redzone they will have no issue handing the ball off to Taylor or Zack Moss to punch it in.
This will certainly be an interesting game to watch. Neither team has a clear advantage on paper. A lot of it will come down to the gamplans and strategy implemented by these two first-year head coaches in Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans. I’ll give the slight edge to Steichen and the Colts at home. They have enough weapons on offense to both get down the field through the air and score on the ground, while I think that their defensive line could dominate the other side of the ball.