Week 11 presents the third divisional matchup for the Bears this season. Having fallen to the Vikings in Week 1 and the Lions in Week 2, Chicago risks falling to 0-3 in the division with a loss in the the Twin Cities on Sunday, making this a crucial contest. The Bears head into the week winners of 6 of their last 7, propelling them towards an impressive 6-3 record. Minnesota will enter the game 4-6, fresh off of a loss to the rising Ravens. The Vikes took down the Lions in Detroit the week prior, however, so they have demonstrated their high potential. I expect this to be a gritty NFC North matchup that comes down to the last few plays–a quality most Bears games seem to share this season.
Keys to the Game
Bears
- Emphasize Quick Passes
One strategy I expect to see the Bears employ in Week 11 is to hammer quick passes. The Vikings defense is 2nd in pressure percentage (30.3%), meaning that it is bothering opposing quarterbacks on a significant portion of their dropbacks. To counteract this, Ben Johnson and the Bears offense will need to prepare to get the ball out of Caleb Williams’ hands quickly. I expect to see more WR and RB screens than usual this week, probably leading to a higher completion percentage out of Williams. Also, Williams and his running backs need to be on the same page on dump-off routes. Don’t be surprised to see D’Andre Swift with a high amount of receiving yards.
- Turnover Young QB McCarthy
With only 4 games under his belt, Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s career is still very young. In those 4 contests, McCarthy has thrown 6 interceptions (1.5 per game). The Bears lead the league in interceptions (13), so it’s safe to assume they’ll get their hands on a few this week.
It is crucial that they do so, considering the importance of takeaways for this defense. The Bears give up the 3rd-most yards per play in the league, so they heavily rely on takeaways to make up for it. Takeaways are a key indicator of victory for the Bears, especially this season.
Vikings
- Protect the Ball
The emphasis on Minnesota protecting the football goes both ways. Not to beat a dead horse, but turnover margin has been fool-proof way to predict the winner of Chicago Bears games this season. Without them, they simply don’t win. Last week, the Giants were in control until Jaxon Dart fumbled deep in Bears territory. Chicago rallied and we all know how that game ended.
Bears turnover ratio in 6 wins in 2025: 19 takeaways / 2 turnovers
Bears turnover ratio in 3 losses in 2025: 1 takeaway / 4 turnovers
- Get Jettas Going
The Vikings need to find a way to tap back into star wide receiver Justin Jefferson. He is arguably the best WR in the NFL, but has been relatively hampered with J.J. under center. Last week, out of 12 targets he hauled in only 4 catches. Chicago’s secondary is weak and presents the perfect opportunity for McCarthy and Jefferson to straighten out some of the kinks. If Jefferson is able to break through, the Vikings will have a much higher chance of winning this game.