The Bears will host the Packers this week in a prestigious time slot. The Saturday kickoff at 8:20 will mark the second matchup between the two rivals in just 13 days. Green Bay narrowly secured the victory in round 1 at Lambeau Field, and the Bears will now get their shot at home field advantage.
Standings-wise, the situation is similar to the first meeting. The Bears sit in 1st place in the NFC North and hold the #2 seed in the NFC. The winner of this game will-yet again-find themselves 1st in the division at the end of the day. With only three games remaining in an extremely tight division and conference, every single game remaining is huge for both teams. The importance of Saturday night’s outcome cannot be overstated.
The Bears will come in off of their most dominating win of the year-a 31-3 bludgeoning of the Cleveland Browns-while the Packers lost a tough contest to the now 12-2 Broncos last week. The loss was only the beginning of Green Bay’s troubles in Denver, however. Superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons, who is 3rd in the NFL in sacks, will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. Wide receiver Christian Watson, who had 89 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first meeting between Chicago and Green Bay, also left the game with an injury. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to suit up. The Bears also have injury concerns in the wide receiver room. Second year stud Rome Odunze will likely miss the contest, while rookie Luther Burden III is also questionable. If neither are able to play, the Bears may have issues at wide receiver.
Keys to the Game
Bears
- Rely on Run Game
The strength of Chicago’s offense-especially if it is down two wide receivers this week-is in its rushing prowess. In its first meeting with the Packers, it only managed 48 rushing yards in the first half (which Chicago was outscored 14-3). Something clicked in the second half, as the Bears exploded for 90 rushing yards in the 3rd and 4th quarter. It is no coincidence that the Bears scored every time they touched the ball in the second half besides the final possession (an endzone interception).
D’Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Ben Johnson, or the offensive line clearly figured it out at halftime. Chicago would be smart to pick up right where it left off this Saturday, as it ended the game playing much better football than Green Bay in Week 14 mainly due to the run game.
- Take More Shots
When Chicago’s offense isn’t running the ball this week, it needs to be taking deeper shots than it did in Week 14. QB Caleb Williams’ average depth of target (ADOT) was only 6.9 yards that week, 25th in the NFL. Compare this to Denver QB Bo Nix’s ADOT last week-in which Denver poured 34 points on the Packers-of 10.2 yards (12th in NFL) and you have found a key difference. The Broncos had four receivers make catches of 20+ yards last week in their impressive offensive performance. They were killing the Packers secondary with deep balls. Chicago needs to adopt a similar strategy.
To be clear, Williams can thrive with a higher ADOT. In fact, his full season average ADOT this year is 9.0 yards. Oddly enough, he simply had an uncharacteristically low average depth of target in the Green Bay game. Hopefully Ben Johnson finds a way to reverse this.
Packers
- Stifle Monangai and Swift
This goes hand-in-hand with Chicago’s first key, and only further emphasizes the importance of Chicago’s ability to rush the ball effectively. The Bears offense revolves around having a major advantage on the ground, which is proven by the first and second half splits in Week 14. If the Packers are able to slow down Monangai and Swift, the game will look very similar to the first half of last meeting. If the Bears can run the ball with efficiency, it will instead look like the second half. This is the game within the game.
- Avoid Interceptions
In the past two weeks, Packers QB Jordan Love has doubled his interception count from 3 to 6. He threw two last week in Denver, while the Bears defense managed to snag three against Shedeur Sanders and the Browns. Chicago leads the NFL in interceptions and total takeaways and has lived off of this stat all year long. I say it every week, but if Chicago loses the boost that it gets from these takeaways, it will be set behind the 8-ball.